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炼化行业现状分析及未来发展趋势
Analysis of the Current Situation and Future Development Trends of the Re? fining and Chemical Industry
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- DOI:
- 作者:
- 王爱菊，周 杨
Wang Aijv, Zhou Yang
- 作者单位:
- 江苏盛虹石化产业集团有限公司
Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical Industry Group Co., Ltd.
- 关键词:
- 炼化行业；内卷式竞争；产业链升级；差异化竞争；高端化工材料；数智化转型；绿色低碳
2refining and chemical industry; involution-style competition; industrial chain upgrading; differentiated competition; high-end chemical materials; digital intelligence transformation; green and low-carbon
- 摘要:
- 炼化行业是国民经济的支柱产业，其发展态势与宏观经济、能源结构调整及产业政策导向密切相关。当前，我国炼化行业正处于从规模扩张向质量提升转型的关键阶段，产能持续扩张与需求增长放缓的矛盾日益突出，形成了显著的内卷式竞争格局。文中基于行业发展现状，系统梳理了国内主要炼化企业的新扩建项目动态，深入分析了市场供需结构与价格走势，探讨了内卷式竞争对行业发展的双重影响。并结合“十五五”规划导向，从延链、强链、补链及差异化配置等维度，融入数智化转型发展趋势，预判行业未来发展方向，以期为行业高质量发展提供参考。The refining and chemical industry is a pillar industry of the national economy, and its development trend is closely relat⁃ed to the macroeconomy, energy structure adjustment, and industrial policy orientation. At present, China's refining and chemical in⁃dustry is in a critical stage of transformation from scale expansion to quality improvement. The contradiction between continuous ca⁃pacity expansion and slowing demand growth has become increasingly prominent, forming a prominent involution-style competitionpattern. Based on the current development status of the industry, this paper systematically sorts out the new and expansion projectdynamics of major domestic refining and chemical enterprises, deeply analyzes the market supply-demand structure and pricetrend, and discusses the dual impacts of involution-style competition on industry development. Combined with the orientation of the15th Five-Year Plan, this paper predicts the future development direction of the industry from the dimensions of extending, strength⁃ening, and supplementing the industrial chain, as well as differentiated allocation, and integrates the development trend of digital in⁃telligence transformation, so as to provide reference for the high-quality development of the industry.